The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system, and its collapse would severely impact the North Atlantic climate. Recent reports indicate weakening circulation, but IPCC assessments based on CMIP model simulations suggest a 21st-century collapse is unlikely. This paper uses early-warning signals (increased variance and autocorrelation) observed in the AMOC to statistically estimate the timing of a potential collapse. The authors estimate a collapse around mid-century under current emission scenarios.

Peter Ditlevsen, Susanne Ditlevsen