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Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Earth Sciences

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

P. Ditlevsen and S. Ditlevsen

The collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may be looming, with significant implications for the North Atlantic climate. Researchers Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen investigate early-warning signals indicating a potential collapse by mid-century if current emissions continue.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system, and its collapse would severely impact the North Atlantic climate. Recent reports indicate weakening circulation, but IPCC assessments based on CMIP model simulations suggest a 21st-century collapse is unlikely. This paper uses early-warning signals (increased variance and autocorrelation) observed in the AMOC to statistically estimate the timing of a potential collapse. The authors estimate a collapse around mid-century under current emission scenarios.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Jul 25, 2023
Authors
Peter Ditlevsen, Susanne Ditlevsen
Tags
AMOC
climate change
tipping point
North Atlantic
early-warning signals
emission scenarios
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