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Abstract
Paleo-proxy records suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has a tipping point for abrupt change. Classical bifurcation theory assumes a fixed tipping point, but time-varying forcing (like meltwater) can cause delayed tipping, a 'slow passage effect'. Using an Earth system model and a low-order model, this study shows that the AMOC tipping point is significantly delayed by this effect, leading to a lag of up to 1300 years and reduced abruptness. This modulation is quantified for past (Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Meltwater Pulse 1A), present, and future (Greenland ice sheet melting) climates, potentially explaining the observed 1000-year lag in AMOC collapse after MWP-1A and influencing future tipping risk.
Publisher
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published On
Feb 11, 2022
Authors
Soong-Ki Kim, Hyo-Jeong Kim, Henk A. Dijkstra, Soon-Il An
Tags
AMOC
tipping point
delayed tipping
Earth system model
climate change
meltwater
Dansgaard-Oeschger events

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