Valuation of candidate brand equity dimensions and voting intention: alternative polling data in the Spanish presidential election

The study investigates the application of marketing concepts to political campaigns, specifically focusing on candidate brand equity and its impact on voter intention. Political candidates are analogous to brands, with voters acting as consumers. Existing literature acknowledges the increasing importance of candidate branding, particularly in the context of the "permanent campaign." The research builds upon Aaker's (1991) model of brand equity, adapting it to the political context to understand how candidate brand equity (specifically candidate-based brand equity or CBBE, independent of party affiliation), influences voter choices. The study aims to identify the brand characteristics of candidates and determine which dimensions of brand equity can be improved to increase voting intention, offering a potential alternative to traditional polling data.

The study reviews existing literature on brand equity, primarily focusing on Aaker's (1991) and Keller's (1993, 2001) models. Aaker's model, encompassing perceived quality, brand loyalty, brand awareness, brand association, and proprietary brand assets, serves as the foundation. Keller's concept of brand identity, based on awareness and associations, is also considered. The authors discuss the operationalization of brand equity, distinguishing between direct (assessing consumer preferences) and indirect (using physical indicators) methods. The review then shifts to the application of brand equity to the political sphere, discussing the concept of Voter-Based Brand Equity (VBBE) and its components: Party-Based Brand Equity (PBBE) and Candidate-Based Brand Equity (CBBE). The literature highlights the independent nature of candidate brands, even within a party, drawing parallels to human brands and emphasizing the emotional connection between voters and candidates. Finally, the literature connecting consumer behavior theory to electoral behavior is reviewed, highlighting the relationship between product/brand performance and behavioral intention in both commercial and political contexts. The unique characteristics of the Spanish presidential election system, particularly the shift towards a multi-party system, are also noted.

The study employed a survey conducted in person across seven Spanish cities. The non-probabilistic discretionary sampling by quotas involved 375 participants, exceeding the minimum sample size required for detecting a medium effect size. The survey included demographic questions and questions assessing candidate brand equity and voting intention for five major candidates from the 2015 Spanish presidential election. The questionnaire, pre-tested on a smaller sample, used a five-point Likert scale to measure candidate brand equity across five dimensions (awareness, association, perceived quality, loyalty, and emotion) and voting intention. Aaker's brand equity model was adapted for the political context. Data analysis utilized partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), chosen for its prediction-oriented nature and ability to handle formative measures. The candidate brand equity was modeled as a second-order construct with five first-order formative constructs. The data aggregation involved calculating mean scores for each participant, representing their overall assessment of each candidate.

The analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between candidate brand equity and voting intention (β = 0.62), with candidate brand equity explaining approximately 39% of the variance in voting intention. Rivera obtained the highest mean score for candidate brand equity (3.42), followed by Iglesias, Sánchez, Garzón, and Rajoy. Voting intention scores followed a similar pattern. The importance-performance map analysis (IPMA) revealed that candidate brand loyalty and perceived quality had the highest influence on brand equity but relatively low performance scores, suggesting areas for improvement. Candidate brand awareness and association had low importance and high performance scores. Candidate brand emotion showed low importance and low performance. For Rajoy and Sánchez (candidates from the traditional two-party system), brand loyalty and perceived quality were particularly influential. Conversely, the candidates from newer parties (Podemos and Ciudadanos) had the highest overall brand equity and election results. While brand awareness was generally high for all candidates, it showed limited value in differentiating brand strength, especially for the established parties. Brand association, while highly controllable, offered limited room for improvement given the high pre-existing scores for all candidates. Brand emotion, a relatively newer dimension, showed only limited influence in the study.

The findings demonstrate the strong influence of candidate brand equity on voting intention, offering a valuable alternative to traditional polling methods. The multidimensional approach allows for a more nuanced understanding of voter preferences, highlighting the importance of specific brand equity dimensions. The IPMA provides a practical tool for candidates to identify areas needing improvement. The study confirms the significant impact of political marketing strategies on electoral outcomes, particularly the importance of managing candidate image, and addressing voter perceptions of candidate quality and loyalty. The results highlight the different strategies needed for established versus newer parties. The significant influence of brand loyalty and perceived quality, especially for the traditional parties, underscores the importance of long-term brand building in politics.

The study contributes to political marketing literature by providing a robust model for assessing candidate brand equity and its impact on voting intention. It offers a valuable alternative to traditional polling, enabling a more strategic approach to campaign management. Future research should consider cross-cultural comparisons, explore the role of party affiliation as a moderator, develop a more robust voting intention measure, and employ a longitudinal design to track CBBE evolution throughout the election cycle. Further research on brand emotion is also suggested.

The study's limitations include the geographic limitations of the sample (five specific cities), a sampling bias towards Ciudadanos voters, and the use of a candidate brand equity measure developed specifically for a political context, potentially overlooking other factors that influence voter behavior. The interpretation of brand loyalty as one dimension of brand equity, rather than an outcome of brand knowledge (per Keller), is another point of consideration. The study's focus solely on CBBE might also limit the analysis of party effects on candidate perceptions.