This large-scale study examines the relative importance of urban population and GDP growth in influencing urban land expansion (ULE) across 300+ cities from 1970-2014. Results indicate that population growth is the dominant driver of ULE, especially before 2000. However, the impact of GDP growth increases after 2000, particularly in countries with strong governance. The relationship between population growth and ULE varies across different developmental stages. Strong governance is crucial for economic growth to significantly influence ULE.

Richa Mahtta, Michail Fragkias, Burak Güneralp, Anjali Mahendra, Meredith Reba, Elizabeth A. Wentz, Karen C. Seto