Climate warming poses a significant threat to global livestock productivity, impacting food security and the livelihoods of millions dependent on livestock products. While the negative effects of climate change on livestock are increasingly acknowledged, the global-scale impact on cattle meat yield (a key indicator of individual animal productivity) remains poorly understood. This study aims to address this gap by examining the relationship between climate warming and cattle meat yield across countries, considering factors like socioeconomic development and baseline temperature conditions. The research is crucial as livestock contributes significantly to global calorie and protein supply, and the implications of climate change on this sector are profound. Understanding how warming differentially impacts cattle meat yield in various regions is vital for implementing effective climate change adaptation strategies and ensuring equitable outcomes across nations. Low-income countries, often located in warmer regions and possessing limited adaptive capacity, are likely to face the most severe consequences.

Existing research highlights the detrimental effects of heat stress on livestock. Studies have shown that high temperatures negatively impact animal health, fertility, and immune systems, leading to increased disease incidence and mortality. Animal-level experiments have demonstrated reduced feed intake and impaired feed conversion efficiency under heat stress conditions. While regional-scale studies have investigated the impacts of heat stress on specific livestock species, global-scale analyses of climate change effects on cattle meat yield have been limited. This knowledge gap necessitates a comprehensive global-scale study to understand the varying sensitivities of cattle meat yields to warming across different regions and income levels, considering the interaction between climate and socio-economic factors.

This study utilized country-level data on annual cattle meat yield from the FAOSTAT database (1961-2020), coupled with socioeconomic data (GDP per capita, cereal yield, livestock production index) from the World Bank. Climate data, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and cloud cover, were sourced from CRU TS v4.06, TerraClimate, and ERA5, respectively. Future climate projections were obtained from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0). The analysis involved pooled panel regression models, employing both annual mean temperature and the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) as measures of warming. The models incorporated quadratic terms to account for nonlinear responses and included variables like precipitation, wind speed, cloud cover, and socioeconomic indicators. Eight regression specifications were used to assess the robustness of the findings. Grassland-based livestock systems were analyzed separately, using three different methods (pasture-cropland ratio, GPP, and FAO livestock system classification) to identify the systems’ distinct sensitivity to warming. The models predicted future changes in cattle meat yield under different climate scenarios, assuming no technological advancements.

The study revealed a nonlinear, inverted-U relationship between temperature (or THI) and cattle meat yield globally. The marginal effect of a 1°C increase in temperature consistently resulted in a negative impact on cattle meat yield, ranging from -0.76% to -0.12% across various regression models. Higher wind speeds and greater cloud cover were associated with a mitigation of heat stress effects, indicated by a lower Bowen ratio. Grassland-based livestock systems exhibited greater sensitivity to warming compared to other systems, likely due to the lack of management practices that can mitigate heat stress in other systems. Unequal impacts of warming were observed across countries, with low-income countries experiencing a substantially greater negative impact on cattle meat yield (average 1% yield loss per 1°C increase) than high-income countries (-0.2% yield loss). This inequality is significantly aggravated under higher future emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0), with a projected yield loss difference of 3.2% between low- and high-income countries. Spatial patterns indicated that low- and mid-latitude countries are projected to experience greater yield losses than high-latitude countries.

The findings highlight the disproportionate burden of climate warming on livestock production in low-income countries, which already face higher baseline temperatures and limited adaptive capacity. The nonlinear relationship between temperature and cattle meat yield underscores the need for context-specific adaptation strategies. The greater sensitivity of grassland-based systems highlights the vulnerability of less managed systems. The study's results contribute to a broader understanding of the economic implications of climate change, adding to existing research on the nonlinear effects of temperature on economic production. The significant disparity in the impacts of warming across countries emphasizes the importance of equitable climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.

This study demonstrates the significant and unequal impacts of climate warming on global cattle meat yield. The nonlinear relationship observed, coupled with the pronounced vulnerability of low-income countries and grassland-based systems, underscores the urgency for targeted adaptation strategies. Future research should focus on incorporating animal behavioral adaptations, refining the assessment of tipping points in climate-livestock interactions, and accounting for ripple effects across integrated global livestock supply chains. The development of heat-tolerant breeds and improvement of management practices will be key to mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on global livestock production.

The analysis relies on country-level aggregated data, potentially obscuring regional variations and specific management practices within countries. Behavioral adaptation strategies employed by livestock producers are not fully captured in the analysis. The study assumes no future technological advancements in mitigating heat stress. Data limitations in some developing countries introduced uncertainty in the results. The complex interplay within global livestock supply chains, including transport and labor impacts, was not explicitly considered.