Intensive livestock farming contributes significantly to global warming, accounting for 20% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Meeting the projected 40% increase in global demand for livestock proteins by 2050 presents a substantial challenge. Cellular agriculture, a branch of biotechnology, offers a potential solution by producing cultured meat and microbial proteins. Previous research indicates that these cellular agriculture products could mitigate the environmental impacts of conventional animal farming, reducing GHG emissions, land and water use. However, cellular agriculture is energy-intensive, requiring low-carbon energy sources such as wind and solar power to maintain its sustainability. The global roadmap initiative projects that renewable energy will constitute approximately two-thirds of global energy production by 2050. The increasing share of electricity in global energy consumption, coupled with a rising share of renewable energy sources, will alter resource demands. Agricultural production, cell-culturing technologies, and green energy generation all utilize raw materials, some of which are classified as critical materials due to high economic importance, supply risk, and vulnerability to supply restrictions. The rapid growth of technological innovations accelerates the demand for these critical materials, potentially creating sustainability challenges for their supply chains. This study investigates the extent to which cell-cultured foods, powered by green energy, can meet global protein demand without exceeding the maximum extraction rates of critical material reserves, while also assessing the impact of this transition on GHG emissions, agricultural land use, and phosphorus consumption.

Existing studies have explored the potential environmental benefits of cellular agriculture, demonstrating its capacity to reduce GHG emissions, land use, and water consumption compared to traditional livestock farming. However, these studies often haven't fully accounted for the energy intensity of cellular agriculture and its potential to increase industrial energy consumption by replacing biological systems with chemical and mechanical ones. The dependence of green energy technologies on critical raw materials has also been highlighted, but the specific impact of transitioning to cellular agriculture on the demand for these materials hasn't been comprehensively assessed. This research addresses these gaps by integrating life cycle assessments with a global dynamic model to analyze a comprehensive set of environmental and resource implications.

This study employed a global dynamic system model combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the transition to cellular agriculture. The system dynamics approach was chosen to capture the complexity of interactions between food production, energy supply, land use, GHG emissions, and critical material demand. The model considered the replacement of livestock products (meat, dairy, and eggs) with microbial protein (MP) and cell-cultured recombinant proteins (RP). LCA data on GHG emissions, energy consumption, and nutrient inputs were sourced from various studies, including Järviö et al. for MP and RP production. The model encompassed the entire supply chain, from resource extraction to product manufacturing. The analysis included ten scenarios, ranging from 0% to 100% replacement of livestock products with cellular agriculture, based on an S-curve adoption process. The model accounted for global green energy capacities projected for 2050, considering both wind and solar PV technologies. The assessment included the demand for various critical materials, comparing it with their primary production capacities. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of variations in electricity consumption and glucose production on the model's key findings. Data on livestock production, green energy capacities, and material intensities were gathered from various sources, including FAOSTAT, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and the European Commission's assessment of material demand for wind and solar PV technologies.

The transition to cellular agriculture, powered by renewable energy, showed significant environmental benefits. A 100% replacement of livestock products by 2050 could reduce annual GHG emissions by 52% (approximately 7.4 gigatonnes CO2-eq) compared to current levels, and reduce agricultural land use by 83% (releasing 9.6 million km²). Phosphorus consumption would decrease by 53%. However, this transition significantly increases the demand for critical materials used in green energy technologies (wind turbines and solar PV panels) and stainless steel production. The analysis revealed that while a complete transition is possible by utilizing 33% of global green energy capacities by 2050, only a maximum of 72% replacement is achievable based on 2050 regional green energy capacities. Tellurium was identified as a critical constraint, as its primary production capacity limits a greater than 60% replacement. The demand for several other critical materials, including REEs, boron, zinc, manganese, silicon, gallium, germanium, indium, and chromium and nickel, would increase, but not exceeding their primary production capacities in most scenarios except for tellurium which would exceed capacity limitations. The sensitivity analysis showed that increasing electricity inputs had the largest impact on critical material demand, potentially exceeding capacity limits for Tellurium with just 50% replacement of livestock products.

The results demonstrate the significant potential of cellular agriculture to mitigate the environmental impacts of livestock farming, reducing GHG emissions and land use considerably. The reliance on renewable energy is crucial for achieving these environmental benefits, but careful consideration must be given to the increased demand for critical materials. The study highlights the importance of developing sustainable supply chains for these materials, improving material efficiency in green energy technologies, and exploring recycling strategies to reduce reliance on primary extraction. The findings suggest that combining wind and solar technologies could enhance the flexibility and sustainability of the transition, mitigating regional capacity constraints. The uncertainties related to future material prices and availability, and the exclusion of livestock by-products from the analysis, should be considered in future research. The study also notes the limitations of using average environmental data and the need for more granular data to improve the accuracy of the findings, and suggests further research regarding potential nutrient deficiencies in the proposed shift away from livestock-based protein sources. Additional research should investigate alternative food sources and the incorporation of byproduct utilization in a comprehensive evaluation of the sustainability of cellular agriculture.

This study demonstrates the potential environmental benefits of a global transition to cellular agriculture powered by renewable energy. While significant reductions in GHG emissions and land use are possible, this transition will increase demand for critical materials. The findings highlight the importance of sustainable material management, improved technology, and recycling strategies. Further research should focus on optimizing the combination of renewable energy technologies, addressing critical material constraints, and examining the broader impacts of replacing livestock-based products with cellular agriculture products, considering alternative dietary sources and the utilization of byproducts. This research serves as a benchmark for future investigations into various alternatives to animal-based diets.

The study uses average values for environmental impacts from various sources, potentially underestimating the variability of these impacts. The model does not incorporate the full range of livestock by-products, potentially underestimating the total environmental and resource implications of a complete shift to cellular agriculture. The projections of future green energy capacities and material prices introduce uncertainty into the results. The study focuses primarily on the environmental and resource aspects, without fully exploring the economic and societal implications of a global shift to cellular agriculture.