Deforestation and climate change are expected to alter fire regimes along the Cerrado-Amazon transition. This study modeled fire probability as a function of time since land-use transitions (frontier age) from 1986 to 2020. Results show that deforestation increased fire activity before and after land clearing, especially in the Amazon. Agricultural intensification reduced fire probability, but deforestation-related fires remained a significant factor, particularly during droughts. Incorporating frontier age into fire modeling is crucial due to the ecological implications of changing fire regimes.

Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Lucas Santos, James T. Randerson, Maria R. Uribe, Ane A. C. Alencar, Marcia N. Macedo, Douglas C. Morton, Jakob Zscheischler, Rafaella A. Silvestrini, Ludmila Rattis, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Paulo M. Brando