The slip surface mechanism of delayed failure of the Brumadinho tailings dam in 2019

The 2019 Feijão dam failure in Brumadinho, Brazil, claimed 270 lives and caused enormous environmental damage. A special feature of this failure was that it took place three years after the tailings disposal was terminated, which should have allowed sufficient time for the material to consolidate and increase its strength. Here we propose a basic physical mechanism of a delayed slip surface growth along weak layers of fine tailings within the dam body. Using accurate numerical modelling of all stages of the evolution of the Feijão dam, we show how this growth was preconditioned by dam construction and tailings discharge history and further driven by creep deformation during the post-closing stage, until the slip surfaces reached their critical length, resulting in their unstable propagation and the rapid collapse of the entire dam. Main factors controlling the time of failure have been identified, facilitating future risk assessment for decommissioned tailings dams.