The Nobel Prize Time Gap

The time lag between the publication of a major scientific discovery and the conferment of a Nobel Prize has been rapidly increasing for the natural science disciplines (chemistry, medicine-physiology, and physics), but has not yet matched the corresponding "waiting period" for the Nobel Prize in Economics. The aim of the present study is to empirically examine the time gap between pioneering work and Nobel recognition and discuss possible explanations for its variation across time and disciplines. The analysis provides evidence to support the argument that attributes such as bestowments of accolades widely regarded as Nobel Prize precursors, citation indices, and sharing of the award between multiple recipients, may explain this variation, but only to some extent. In the discussion that follows, the notably longer waiting period in economics is attributed to factors such as the laureates' age, the impact of which the current study cannot empirically examine. Since the Nobel Prize cannot be awarded posthumously, the Nobel Committee members may tend to grand the award to older economists before they pass away and become ineligible.

Pandelis Mitsis