This study investigates the impact of relative humidity (RH) on the interannual variability of urban malaria in Surat and Ahmedabad, India. Using process-based dynamical models and nearly two decades of surveillance data, the researchers found a significant effect of pre-transmission season humidity on malaria burden in both cities. Simulations accurately captured observed variability and prospectively predicted disease incidence. The findings highlight the critical role of RH in urban malaria spread and suggest that climate change and inadequate hydrological planning could hinder malaria elimination efforts.

M. Santos-Vega, P. P. Martinez, K. G. Vaishnav, V. Kohli, V. Desai, M. J. Bouma, M. Pascual