Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change, leading to increased mortality. This study uses extreme value statistics to identify regions globally where regional temperature records are statistically likely to be exceeded, highlighting areas at increased risk. The analysis reveals that in 31% of regions, observed daily maximum temperature records are exceptionally high. Climate models suggest similar behavior could occur in any region, with particular concern for regions like Afghanistan and parts of Central America due to potential for extreme heat, growing populations, and limited resources. The authors urge policymakers in vulnerable regions to evaluate the adequacy of current heat action plans.

Vikki Thompson, Dann Mitchell, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Matthew Collins, Nicholas J. Leach, Julia M. Slingo