Climate change-induced sea-level rise will increase internal migration. This study uses a spatially explicit model ('CONCLUDE') to explore the spatial feedbacks between sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and adaptation policies in the Mediterranean region. Results show up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 without adaptation, with significantly higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. Adaptation policies can reduce this number substantially, but hard protection measures may lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, migration patterns are robust, with out-migration from coastal strips and in-migration to urban areas, but the type of migration depends on socioeconomic factors affecting adaptive capacity.

Lena Reimann, Bryan Jones, Nora Bieker, Claudia Wolff, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts, Athanasios T. Vafeidis