This study investigates the impact of recent and future climate change on Arctic cyclone behavior during spring using high-resolution regional modeling and downscaled global climate projections. Results indicate that recent climate change has not significantly altered cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and warming are projected to substantially increase near-surface temperature gradients, heat fluxes, and convection, leading to more intense and prolonged cyclones with stronger winds, higher temperatures, and increased precipitation. These changes could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks, with significant implications for Arctic ecosystems and human activities.

Chelsea L. Parker, Priscilla A. Mooney, Melinda A. Webster, Linette N. Boisvert