Earth Sciences

The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century

D. P. Lowry, M. Krapp, et al.

Explore the intriguing uncertainties surrounding the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its potential impact on global sea-level rise! This comprehensive study by Daniel P. Lowry, Mario Krapp, Nicholas R. Golledge, and Alanna Alevropoulos-Borrill reveals that differences between high and low emissions scenarios will emerge over a century, while long-term commitments show striking potential multi-meter differences.

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Playback language: English

Index

Abstract

The future contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to global sea-level rise is highly uncertain. This study uses historically constrained ice sheet simulations and a statistical emulator to show that a clear difference in AIS sea-level contribution between high and low emissions scenarios won't be evident for over a century due to uncertainties in ice flow and sliding. However, the total global warming this century significantly impacts long-term AIS sea-level commitment, with multi-meter differences projected between high and low emission scenarios in subsequent centuries.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Oct 26, 2021

Authors

Daniel P. Lowry, Mario Krapp, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alanna Alevropoulos-Borrill

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