The future contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to global sea-level rise is highly uncertain. This study uses historically constrained ice sheet simulations and a statistical emulator to show that a clear difference in AIS sea-level contribution between high and low emissions scenarios won't be evident for over a century due to uncertainties in ice flow and sliding. However, the total global warming this century significantly impacts long-term AIS sea-level commitment, with multi-meter differences projected between high and low emission scenarios in subsequent centuries.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Oct 26, 2021
Authors
Daniel P. Lowry, Mario Krapp, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alanna Alevropoulos-Borrill
Tags
Antarctic Ice Sheet
sea-level rise
emissions scenarios
ice flow
global warming
ice sheet simulations
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