The effect of future self-continuity on intertemporal decision making: a mediated moderating model

Intertemporal decision-making involves choosing between smaller, immediate rewards and larger, delayed rewards. Time discounting, the decrease in the subjective value of delayed outcomes, is a key factor. Future self-continuity, the perceived continuity between present and future selves, significantly influences intertemporal decision-making. Individuals with high future self-continuity are more likely to choose delayed, larger rewards, exhibiting lower time discount rates. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship remain unclear. This research investigates the influence of future self-continuity on intertemporal decision-making, focusing on the moderating role of self-concept clarity (the extent to which an individual has a clear, consistent self-perception) and the mediating role of future outcome consideration (the degree to which individuals contemplate the long-term consequences of their actions). We hypothesize that future self-continuity will negatively predict time discount rate (Hypothesis 1), self-concept clarity will moderate this relationship (Hypothesis 2), and future outcome consideration will mediate the moderating effect of self-concept clarity (Hypothesis 3). Understanding these factors is crucial for improving decision-making and reducing cognitive biases that lead to suboptimal choices in various life domains, from financial planning to health behaviors.

Existing research demonstrates a strong link between future self-continuity and intertemporal choice. Studies show that enhancing future self-continuity reduces time discounting, leading to more patient choices. The psychological distance between present and future selves is a key factor; strong future self-continuity minimizes this distance, promoting long-term planning. Conversely, weak future self-continuity is associated with prioritizing immediate gratification and higher time discount rates. However, the influence of self-concept clarity on this process is less explored. Self-concept clarity is hypothesized to moderate the relationship between future self-continuity and intertemporal decisions. Individuals with clear self-concepts may be better able to integrate their present and future selves, leading to more consistent choices aligned with long-term goals. The role of future outcome consideration as a mediating factor is also examined. Individuals who strongly consider future consequences are expected to make more patient choices, regardless of their level of future self-continuity. This literature review lays the groundwork for exploring the interplay of these three constructs (future self-continuity, self-concept clarity, and future outcome consideration) in shaping intertemporal decision-making.

The study employed a two-study design. Study 1 utilized a questionnaire-based approach to examine the relationship between future self-continuity, self-concept clarity, and intertemporal choice. 370 participants completed the Future Self-Continuity Questionnaire (FSCQ), the Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCCS), and a monetary choice questionnaire to assess their time discount rates. Data analysis included correlation analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) using Mplus 8.3, controlling for age, gender, and objective socioeconomic status. Study 2 employed an experimental design to manipulate future self-continuity and explore its effect on intertemporal choice, while examining the mediating role of future outcome consideration and the moderating role of self-concept clarity. 234 participants were randomly assigned to either a high or low future self-continuity group through reading and writing tasks designed to manipulate their perception of self-continuity. Participants then completed the same measures as in Study 1, with the addition of a Future Outcome Consideration Scale. Data were analyzed using independent samples t-tests, correlation analysis, and SEM with Bayesian estimation using Mplus 8.3, again controlling for relevant covariates. In both studies, common method variance was addressed through various techniques.

Study 1 found a significant negative correlation between future self-continuity and time discount rate, supporting Hypothesis 1. Self-concept clarity significantly moderated this relationship, such that the negative relationship between future self-continuity and time discount rate was stronger for individuals with higher self-concept clarity, supporting Hypothesis 2. Study 2 successfully manipulated future self-continuity. The results replicated the negative relationship between future self-continuity and time discount rate. Self-concept clarity again moderated the relationship between future self-continuity and future outcome consideration, which in turn mediated the effect on intertemporal decision-making, supporting Hypothesis 3. Specifically, in Study 1, SEM analysis showed that future self-continuity significantly and negatively predicted the time discount rate (b = −0.217, p = 0.002), and self-concept clarity significantly negatively moderated this relationship (b = −0.232, p = 0.007). Simple slope analysis confirmed this moderation. In Study 2, the manipulation check was successful, with a significant difference in future self-continuity scores between the high and low groups (t(232) = 17.479, p < 0.001). SEM analysis indicated that future self-continuity significantly and negatively predicted time discount rate (b = −0.154, p = 0.013), and self-concept clarity significantly moderated the relationship between future self-continuity and future outcome consideration (b = 0.209, p < 0.001). Future outcome consideration significantly mediated the effect of future self-continuity on time discount rate. Simple slope analyses further clarified these interactions.

The findings consistently support the hypothesis that future self-continuity is a crucial factor influencing intertemporal decision-making. Individuals with a stronger sense of connection to their future selves are more likely to make choices that benefit their long-term well-being. The moderating role of self-concept clarity highlights the importance of self-knowledge and clarity in translating future self-continuity into patient choices. A clear self-concept allows individuals to effectively integrate their future goals with their current actions. The mediating role of future outcome consideration suggests that the process by which future self-continuity affects intertemporal choices involves a conscious consideration of long-term consequences. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying intertemporal decision-making, providing valuable insights for interventions aimed at improving individual choices and promoting well-being. These findings have implications for promoting savings behaviors, healthy lifestyle choices, and ethical decision-making.

This two-study investigation demonstrates the significant impact of future self-continuity on intertemporal decision-making, with self-concept clarity and future outcome consideration playing crucial moderating and mediating roles, respectively. Individuals with high future self-continuity and self-concept clarity are more likely to consider future consequences and make patient choices. Future research could explore these relationships across various cultural contexts and with different types of rewards, extending the generalizability of these findings. Further investigation into the specific cognitive processes involved in translating future self-continuity into action would enhance our understanding of this complex interplay.

This study primarily focused on monetary rewards, limiting the generalizability of the findings to other domains. The use of self-report measures might have introduced common method variance, although efforts were made to mitigate this. The cross-sectional nature of Study 1 limits causal inferences. Future research should address these limitations by employing longitudinal designs and exploring non-monetary contexts. Additionally, the response times of the participants were not fully accounted for in the analysis, and this might affect the conclusions of the study.