The development of Kondratieff's theory of long waves: the place of the AI economy humanization in the 'competencies-innovations-markets' model

The study addresses uncertainty about how the AI economy influences economic cycles and explores how Industry 4.0 might stabilize the global economy amid recurrent crises. It advances the Kondratieff long-wave theory by incorporating modern drivers of long-term growth (MANBRIC technologies) and accelerated innovation-competency development. The authors propose a 'competencies-innovations-markets' model showing a spiral co-development of competencies and market expansion that can convert the decline phase of Kondratieff waves into a near-linear process sustaining growth rates. The model demonstrates that, under conditions of humanization, the AI economy can reduce the cyclicality of the world economic system, thereby smoothing Kondratieff long waves.

Andrey E. Tyulin, Alexander A. Chursin, Julia V. Ragulina, Victoria V. Akberdina, Alexander V. Yudin