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The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario

Earth Sciences

The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario

Z. Li, S. Gao, et al.

In a groundbreaking study, researchers, including Zhi Li and Shang Gao, reveal that flash floods in the US are set to become more frequent and intense due to the impacts of climate change. Utilizing high-resolution climate simulations, they predict a significant increase in flashiness, especially in the Southwest and central regions, highlighting an urgent need for resilient mitigation measures.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Flash floods, largely driven by high rainfall rates in convective storms, are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warmer climate. This study uses high-resolution climate simulations (4-km, hourly resolution) to force a numerical hydrologic model at a continental scale, quantifying future changes in US flood flashiness. Results indicate a 7.9% increase in flashiness by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The Southwest shows the greatest increase (+10.5%), while the central US (+8.6%) emerges as a new flash flood hotspot. Future flash flood-prone areas are also expanding northwards, highlighting the need for climate-resilient mitigation measures in emerging hotspots.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Apr 06, 2022
Authors
Zhi Li, Shang Gao, Mengye Chen, Jonathan J. Gourley, Changhai Liu, Andreas F. Prein, Yang Hong
Tags
flash floods
climate change
hydrologic model
US flood flashiness
high-emissions scenario
regional impacts
climate-resilient measures

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