Environmental Studies and ForestryNature Communications

Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions

J. Strefler, L. Merfort, et al.

This study reveals how technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral changes are pivotal for the European Union to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. With scenarios indicating a need for high CO2 prices, the research by Jessica Strefler and colleagues highlights the challenges of meeting environmental goals without crucial changes.... show more

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Abstract

In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is challenging to attain. Already a target of 200 Mt CO₂eq/yr requires CO₂ prices above 100 €/tCO₂ in 2030 across all scenarios. The required CO₂ price can increase to up to 450 €/tCO₂ by 2030 if technologies are constrained, if no complementary regulatory measures are implemented, and if changes in consumer behavior towards a more sustainable lifestyle do not materialize.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Sep 30, 2024

Authors

Jessica Strefler, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Miodrag Stevanović, Dennis Tänzler, Florian Humpenöder, David Klein, Gunnar Luderer, Michaja Pehl, Robert C. Pietzcker, Alexander Popp, Renato Rodrigues, Marianna Rottoli, Elmar Krieger

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52424-0

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