This systematic review analyzes 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change, identifying five main modeling methods. 'Excess heat' models, while prevalent, received disproportionate citations and may project more severe consequences than other methodologies. The review highlights inconsistencies in model outputs and scenarios, impeding uncertainty estimation. The authors propose incorporating uncertainty into deterministic models and suggest a multi-model ensemble approach for generating probabilistic projections of coral reef futures.

Shannon G. Klein, Cassandra Roch, Carlos M. Duarte