The research investigates the intricate relationship between land management practices, climate change, biodiversity, and the capacity of ecosystems to deliver multiple services simultaneously (multifunctionality). Current land management practices are jeopardizing ecosystem multifunctionality, which is crucial for human well-being. The study aims to bridge the gap in understanding the combined effect of land-use types and future climate on the multifunctionality of agricultural ecosystems. The authors highlight the importance of considering both ecological and economic aspects of multifunctionality, acknowledging that different stakeholders value ecosystem services differently. Ecological multifunctionality is often assessed using averaging approaches with various weighting schemes based on stakeholder preferences. The study innovatively introduces an economic multifunctionality measure that integrates the monetary value of ecosystem services, including those accruing to society at large, rather than just farmers. This integrated approach aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of land management and climate change on ecosystem multifunctionality, considering multiple stakeholders and their diverse perspectives. Previous research has shown that land-use intensification generally reduces multifunctionality, while sustainable practices, such as organic farming, tend to increase it. Climate change is predicted to have a net negative impact on ecosystem services, but the overall effect on stakeholders and societal benefits remains unclear. This study explicitly addresses this uncertainty by analyzing the effects of both land management and climate change on multifunctionality in agricultural ecosystems in Central Germany.

Existing literature extensively documents the effects of land use and climate change on ecosystem multifunctionality. Land-use intensification, characterized by increased agrochemical inputs, has consistently been shown to decrease multifunctionality in croplands. Conversely, organic farming practices have been associated with increased multifunctionality due to their promotion of regulating and supporting services. Climate change is expected to have largely negative impacts on ecosystem services. The studies highlight the varying valuation of ecosystem services by different stakeholders, leaving the overall impact on societal benefits uncertain. Biodiversity loss is another major factor contributing to the decline in multifunctionality. Biodiversity supports and stabilizes many natural processes, making ecosystems more resilient to environmental change. While there is some research on the independent effects of these drivers, studies on their combined impact are limited. The current research addresses this gap by investigating how land-use type and climate interact to affect ecosystem multifunctionality, with a specific focus on the role of biodiversity. The study builds upon previous research demonstrating the biodiversity-multifunctionality relationship under diverse conditions but extends this by analyzing this relationship under future climate conditions, thus addressing a critical gap in the literature.

The study utilizes data from the Global Change Experimental Facility (GCEF) in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, spanning 2014-2023. The GCEF is a large-scale field experiment manipulating climate (ambient and future scenarios) and land-use types (conventional farming, organic farming, intensive meadow, extensive meadow, extensive pasture) in a fully randomized split-plot design. Fourteen ecosystem functions were measured, serving as proxies for six ecosystem services (food production, climate regulation, water quality, soil health, biodiversity conservation, landscape aesthetics). Ecological multifunctionality was calculated using a weighted averaging approach, with weights derived from survey data reflecting the preferences of four stakeholder groups (farmers, local residents, environmental conservation agencies, tourism). An economic multifunctionality measure was calculated by summing the monetary values of the ecosystem services. The economic valuation included market prices for food production and non-market values for other services (climate regulation, water quality, soil health) based on accounting prices recommended by the German Federal Environmental Agency. Alternative price scenarios were used to assess the robustness of the results. Statistical analysis involved mixed-effects models and correlation analyses. The relationship between soil biodiversity and ecological multifunctionality was examined using linear regression. Data cleaning and analysis were performed using R statistical software.

The study reveals that intensive management and future climate significantly reduce ecological multifunctionality across most stakeholder weighting scenarios. Sustainably managed land-use types generally show higher levels of ecological multifunctionality compared to intensively managed types, even under future climate conditions. Notably, the economic multifunctionality measure was 1.7 to 1.9 times higher for sustainable than intensive management, for both grassland and cropland. This suggests that sustainable management brings greater overall economic benefit, even though farmers might receive higher short-term yields from intensive practices. The economic multifunctionality values strongly correlate with ecological multifunctionality across all weighting scenarios. Soil biodiversity showed a positive correlation with ecological multifunctionality, supporting its role as a driver of ecosystem multifunctionality. The study also reveals significant interaction effects between land-use type and climate on ecological multifunctionality, with sustainably managed cropland showing the most pronounced absolute reduction under future climate but still maintaining relatively high levels of multifunctionality compared to other land-use types. The economic multifunctionality results were robust to variations in accounting prices for CO2 emissions and crop prices, though they were sensitive to the accounting price for nitrogen leaching, highlighting the importance of site-specific factors. Analysis indicates that for grasslands, climate regulation contributes significantly to economic multifunctionality, while food production is dominant for croplands. For intensively managed land-use types, nitrogen surplus significantly reduces economic multifunctionality due to its negative effect on water quality.

The findings highlight the critical need for a shift towards sustainable land management practices to enhance both ecological and economic multifunctionality of agroecosystems. While intensive management may offer higher short-term economic benefits to farmers, sustainable practices generate greater overall economic value for society due to the inclusion of wider ecosystem services. The strong positive correlation between ecological and economic multifunctionality underscores the interconnectedness of ecological and economic aspects of ecosystem health. The significant role of soil biodiversity in maintaining multifunctionality highlights the importance of conservation efforts. The study also reinforces the projected negative effects of climate change on ecosystem multifunctionality, emphasizing the importance of climate change adaptation strategies in land management decisions. The sensitivity analysis highlights the importance of considering site-specific factors when calculating the social cost of nitrogen emissions, which could affect economic multifunctionality estimations. The results strongly support policies promoting sustainable land management, acknowledging the trade-offs between short-term economic gains for farmers and long-term societal benefits.

The study demonstrates the significant benefits of sustainable land management for enhancing both ecological and economic multifunctionality in agroecosystems under both current and future climate conditions. The findings underscore the need for policy interventions that incentivize sustainable practices, considering the trade-offs between short-term farmer profits and long-term societal gains. Further research should focus on developing effective economic incentives to promote sustainable land management and investigate the long-term dynamics of soil carbon and biodiversity in different land-use types. Additionally, research investigating the effect of climate extremes, beyond mean climate change, is needed to fully understand the impact of future climate scenarios on agroecosystem multifunctionality.

The study is based on data from a single experimental site in Central Germany and might not be generalizable to other regions with different climatic and soil conditions. The future climate scenario used may represent a conservative estimate of potential future warming, and increased frequency of extreme weather events could have even more severe impacts on multifunctionality. The economic valuation of ecosystem services relied on specific accounting prices and market prices, which could vary depending on the context and potentially affect the results. The study also does not explicitly account for all possible ecosystem services and their values and the assessment of stakeholder preferences was based on data from a previous survey, which may not fully capture the current values and perceptions of the stakeholder groups in the region. The experimental design, while robust, doesn't allow for the establishment of causality between biodiversity and multifunctionality; further research may be required to confirm this relationship.