Sustainable development in African countries: evidence from the impacts of education and poverty ratio

Africa, with its abundant natural resources and diverse ecosystems, faces urgent environmental challenges including deforestation, biodiversity loss, and heightened vulnerability to climate change, evidenced by increasing extreme weather events. Although Africa contributes a relatively small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, it suffers disproportionately from climate impacts. Pursuit of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is both urgent and challenging; Africa faces structural obstacles such as conflict, insufficient investment, limited market access, and substantial financing gaps—estimated at USD 1.6 trillion by 2030, requiring about USD 194 billion annually. Education is highlighted as a transformative catalyst for inclusive development and environmental stewardship. Despite progress in access—primary completion rates rose from 52% to 67% between 2000 and 2022, and increases in girls’ and tertiary enrollment—significant issues persist: inadequate infrastructure, teacher shortages, and access disparities, particularly in rural and marginalized communities. Poverty alleviation is critical, as nearly half of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population lives below the poverty line, with extreme poverty exceeding 30% in many countries. Effective strategies include equitable resource allocation, targeted social programs, progressive taxation, and investment in education, vocational training, and entrepreneurship. The primary academic goal of this research is to evaluate the impact of poverty and education on the sustainable development index in African economies, to inform effective education development and poverty alleviation policies that promote sustainable development. Limitations include variability in data availability and quality across countries and potential disruptions from political instability, which may constrain comprehensive quantitative analysis. The paper is structured with a literature review, a discussion of sustainability and the channels through which education and poverty influence it, data and model description, empirical findings, and conclusions with policy implications and avenues for future research.

The literature underscores the multifaceted nature of sustainable development in Africa. Studies advocate holistic strategies balancing economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental stewardship, and emphasize governance and institutional quality for equitable resource allocation and participatory decision-making. Research highlights Africa’s unique challenges—poverty, inequality, and environmental degradation—requiring context-specific policies. Educational challenges are pervasive: disparities in access and quality disproportionately affect marginalized groups (girls, rural and low-income households). Constraints include infrastructure deficits, teacher shortages, and insufficient funding; conflict and political instability further disrupt schooling. Solutions call for addressing supply- and demand-side barriers, improving infrastructure and teacher training, and mobilizing partnerships among governments, civil society, and the private sector for inclusive, equitable education. Poverty in Africa is multidimensional, encompassing income deprivation and limited access to healthcare, education, and clean water, compounded by unemployment, inequality, and limited opportunities. Climate change worsens poverty by undermining agriculture and increasing vulnerability. Addressing poverty necessitates targeted social interventions, inclusive growth, sustainable development policies, and a foundation of social justice and human rights. A noted gap in the literature is the lack of comprehensive research examining the intersectionality and interactions among sustainable development, education, and poverty within the African context, beyond studies treating these dimensions separately.

The study analyzes the 15 largest African economies—Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, Algeria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Kenya, Angola, Tanzania, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Congo, Uganda, Tunisia, and Cameroon—over 1999–2019. The period begins with the 1999 Regional Consultative Meeting on Sustainable Development in Abidjan and ends before the pandemic-induced downturn. The dependent variable is a multidimensional sustainable development index constructed as a geometric average of green energy deployment, access to freshwater, CO2 emissions, and waste generation (sources: World Bank, UN, UNEP). Key explanatory variables include the population with tertiary education (percent) and the poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (percent), both from the World Bank. Controls include trade volume (imports and exports; Trademap), ICT development (ITU, World Bank), and GDP per capita (World Bank). Correlation analysis indicates no severe collinearity among variables. Variance inflation factor (VIF) values are low (average VIF ≈ 1.292), suggesting no multicollinearity concerns. Cross-sectional dependence is present across countries (Breusch-Pagan 1980 and Pesaran 2021 tests significant). Panel unit root testing (Pesaran CIPS and ADF) shows mixed orders of integration I(0) and I(1). Westerlund (2007) cointegration tests indicate long-run relationships among variables. The empirical model uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) panel framework estimated via the pooled mean group (PMG) approach, allowing for heterogeneous short-run dynamics and common long-run coefficients. A PMG specification such as ARDL-PMG (0,0,0,1,1) is employed. Diagnostic evaluations detect no issues with autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, non-normality, or model misspecification. Robustness is assessed by switching the dependent variable from the sustainability index to CO2 emissions and re-estimating relationships.

- Education: A 1% increase in the population with tertiary education is associated with a 0.07% improvement in sustainability in the short run and a 0.32% increase in the long run (both significant), supporting the role of higher education in sustainable development. - Poverty: A 1% increase in the poverty headcount ratio reduces sustainability by 0.43% in the short run and 0.66% in the long run (both significant), underscoring the detrimental effects of poverty on sustainability. - Trade: A 1% increase in trade volume decreases sustainability by 0.09% in the short run and 0.19% in the long run (significant), suggesting trade liberalization alone may not promote sustainability. - ICT development: ICT development has a significant positive impact on sustainability (long-run coefficient ≈ 0.21; short-run D(ICT) terms positive and significant), indicating benefits from digital infrastructure and technologies. - GDP per capita: Higher GDP per capita is associated with lower sustainability (long-run coefficient ≈ −0.54; short-run D(GDP) negative and significant in some specifications), potentially reflecting unsustainable consumption and inequality effects. - Econometric diagnostics: Average VIF ≈ 1.292 (no multicollinearity). Cross-sectional dependence detected across series (Breusch-Pagan and Pesaran tests significant). Mixed stationarity across variables; Westerlund cointegration tests support long-run relationships. Diagnostic tests indicate no autocorrelation (p=0.19), no heteroscedasticity (p=0.53), normality (p=0.61), and appropriate model specification (p=0.49). - Robustness: When using CO2 emissions as the dependent variable, education reduces emissions while poverty increases emissions, consistent with baseline findings, reinforcing result reliability.

The findings directly address the research question by quantifying how education and poverty affect sustainability outcomes in African economies. Higher tertiary education attainment contributes positively to sustainable development in both the short and long run, likely via enhanced human capital, innovation, environmental literacy, and adoption of sustainable practices. The strong negative effects of poverty on sustainability reflect restricted access to resources, education, and healthcare, reinforcing cycles of deprivation and environmental degradation that hinder progress toward SDGs. The observed negative association between trade volume and sustainability suggests that, without adequate regulatory frameworks and equitable policies, increased trade can intensify resource extraction, pollution, and social inequities. Conversely, ICT development’s positive effects highlight the potential of digital infrastructure to improve information flow, efficiency, and collaboration, enabling more inclusive and environmentally responsible growth. The negative link between GDP per capita and sustainability implies that the composition and patterns of growth matter; growth driven by extractive or carbon-intensive sectors and accompanied by inequality can undermine environmental and social dimensions of sustainability. Overall, the results underscore the need for integrated policies that expand equitable education access, reduce poverty, regulate trade’s environmental and social impacts, leverage ICT for green transitions, and guide economic growth toward sustainable pathways.

The study contributes by constructing and empirically analyzing a multidimensional sustainability index for 15 major African economies (1999–2019) and by identifying key drivers: education (positive), poverty (negative), ICT development (positive), trade volume (negative), and GDP per capita (negative). Policy recommendations include: investing in and ensuring equitable access to education, particularly via gender-responsive measures to eliminate disparities; promoting e-business and sustainable entrepreneurship for greener job creation; and attracting foreign investment targeted at sustainable education and employment initiatives. Future research should examine heterogeneous regional dynamics across Africa’s subregions, and rigorously evaluate the effectiveness of sustainable regional agreements, including policy frameworks, institutional capacities, and stakeholder engagement mechanisms, to translate commitments into measurable sustainability outcomes.

Data availability and quality vary substantially across African countries, with some lacking comprehensive measures of education attainment, poverty, and sustainability indicators. Political instability in parts of the continent can impede data collection and affect data reliability. These constraints may limit the robustness and generalizability of the quantitative analysis across all African countries, though the study’s insights remain informative for policy and practice.