Supporting the Paris Agreement through international cooperation: potential contributions, institutional robustness, and progress of Glasgow climate initiatives

Many sector-level cooperative initiatives involving both national governments and non-state actors were launched around COP26 (Glasgow, 2021). Questions persist about whether these initiatives can substantially contribute to achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C goal. This paper assesses 14 Glasgow sector initiatives by estimating their aggregate mitigation ambition under current national signatories and evaluating each initiative’s institutional robustness. Even if fully implemented, the additional 2030 emission reductions from current national government signatories would fill only about one quarter of the 2030 emissions gap between existing NDCs and 1.5 °C-consistent levels, with considerable variation in institutional robustness across initiatives. Most national government signatories did not reference Glasgow initiatives in NDC updates submitted after COP26. Expanding national participation, integrating initiative goals into NDCs with quantifiable domestic targets, and strengthening institutional capacity are key for realizing emission reductions.

Takeshi Kuramochi, Andrew Deneault, Sander Chan, Sybrig Smit, Natalie Pelekh