This study projects future flood risk in seven major Chinese urban agglomerations, home to over 750 million people, considering climate change and urban expansion. Results show a substantial increase in inundated urban land areas (4 to 19 times the present level), with urban expansion significantly exacerbating the risk. Climate change is the main driver, but urban expansion contributes substantially, particularly in northern China. The study highlights the urgent need for integrated strategies addressing climate change mitigation, urban planning, and flood protection.

Ruijie Jiang, Hui Lu, Kun Yang, Deliang Chen, Jiayue Zhou, Dai Yamazaki, Ming Pan, Wenyu Li, Nan Xu, Yuan Yang, Dabo Guan, Fuqiang Tian