Medicine and Health

Malaria transmission risk is projected to increase in the highlands of Western and Northern Rwanda

L. Zong, J. P. Ngarukiyimana, et al.

Research by Lian Zong, Jean Paul Ngarukiyimana, Yuanjian Yang, Steve H. L. Yim, Yi Zhou, Mengya Wang, Zunyi Xie, Hung Chak Ho, Meng Gao, Shilu Tong, and Simone Lolli reveals that malaria transmission risk in Rwanda may escalate in currently low-transmission highland areas due to climate changes. Their projections indicate a shift in peak seasons, raising concerns for public health in the region.

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Abstract

Malaria transmission risk in Rwanda is projected to increase in highlands of western and northern Rwanda due to projected increases in temperature and precipitation. An ensemble learning method was used to simulate monthly malaria incidence (2010-2015) and project future prevalence using shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Results indicate a potential shift in malaria transmission risk to currently low-transmission highland areas, with seasonal effects potentially becoming less apparent and peak seasons shifting.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Oct 03, 2024

Authors

Lian Zong, Jean Paul Ngarukiyimana, Yuanjian Yang, Steve H. L. Yim, Yi Zhou, Mengya Wang, Zunyi Xie, Hung Chak Ho, Meng Gao, Shilu Tong, Simone Lolli

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