Malaria transmission risk in Rwanda is projected to increase in highlands of western and northern Rwanda due to projected increases in temperature and precipitation. An ensemble learning method was used to simulate monthly malaria incidence (2010-2015) and project future prevalence using shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Results indicate a potential shift in malaria transmission risk to currently low-transmission highland areas, with seasonal effects potentially becoming less apparent and peak seasons shifting.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Oct 03, 2024
Authors
Lian Zong, Jean Paul Ngarukiyimana, Yuanjian Yang, Steve H. L. Yim, Yi Zhou, Mengya Wang, Zunyi Xie, Hung Chak Ho, Meng Gao, Shilu Tong, Simone Lolli
Tags
Malaria
Rwanda
Climate Change
Highlands
Transmission Risk
Public Health
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