Spatiotemporal evolution of Nigeria's armed conflicts and terrorism and the associated shift in social perceptions

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation with diverse ethnicities, faces significant challenges from armed conflict and terrorism. While the Nigerian government claims a decrease in Boko Haram attacks in the Northeast, the overall number of armed conflicts remains high, exceeding 4500 in 2021 and 2022, with fatalities exceeding 10,000 annually. This level of violence is comparable to civilian deaths in the Ukraine conflict but receives significantly less international attention. Existing research has explored various aspects of terrorism, including regional effects on tourism, variations across political regimes, the relationship between terrorism and trust, and modeling/predicting armed conflicts. Studies also highlight links between economics, governance, military expenditure, and terrorism in Africa, citing factors such as poverty, failed states, minority discrimination, and religion as potential causes. Chatham House and the United Nations have pointed to corruption and injustice as key drivers, creating fertile ground for Jihadist insurgencies. However, these analyses lack the comprehensive spatiotemporal characterization needed to guide effective countermeasures. This study aims to systematically characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of armed conflicts and terrorism in Nigeria using ACLED data and GDELT to examine changing social perceptions.

The study builds upon existing research on terrorism and armed conflict, reviewing studies on regional effects of terrorism, variations across political regimes, the relationship between terrorism and trust, and modeling/prediction of terrorism. The authors also cite literature examining the relationship between economics, governance, military expenditure, and terrorism in Africa, specifically in Nigeria. Existing research identifies various causes of terrorism, including poverty, failed states, minority discrimination, and religion. The authors acknowledge the insights from Chatham House and the United Nations, highlighting corruption and injustice as factors fostering Jihadist insurgencies. However, they argue that these analyses are insufficient to guide the design of concrete countermeasures, motivating their own comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis.

This research employs data from two primary sources: the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project and the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT). ACLED data, covering January 2013 to December 2023, provides disaggregated information on conflict events in Nigeria, including event type (battles, explosions, riots, violence against civilians), actors, location, and fatalities. GDELT, encompassing over 700 million events from 1979 to present, provides a broader context of global events, including a Goldstein Scale to quantify conflict/cooperation. Additionally, the study uses the democracy index and the corruption perception index (CPI) as potential explanatory factors. The authors utilize the lognormal distribution to characterize daily events and fatalities and apply Shannon entropy to measure the spatial spread of conflicts. Revealed Comparative Wealth (RCW) is employed as an economic indicator. Statistical analysis, including the coefficient of determination (R²), and Pearson correlation coefficients, are used to examine relationships between variables. A National Activity Index (NAI) based on GDELT data is constructed to assess societal perceptions of conflicts and terrorism. The methodology involves spatial mapping of conflict events and fatalities, temporal analysis using Shannon entropy and time series analysis, and correlation analysis between conflict data and economic, political, and social indicators.

The study reveals that armed conflicts and terrorism in Nigeria have evolved both spatially and temporally. Spatially, conflicts have become more widespread, evidenced by increasing Shannon entropy. Temporally, they've become more uniform, as shown by decreasing Shannon entropy for fatalities and a smaller daily mean of conflict events. The analysis reveals strong correlations between the intensity of conflicts and several factors: * **Economic Decay:** A significant decrease in Revealed Comparative Wealth (RCW), indicating a decline in Nigeria's economic standing relative to the global average, is strongly correlated with increased conflict fatalities. * **Erosion of Democracy:** Lower democracy index scores are associated with higher conflict levels. * **Increased Corruption:** Higher corruption perception index (CPI) scores, indicating higher levels of corruption, correlate with a rise in armed conflicts. The analysis using GDELT data reveals that the National Activity Index (NAI), particularly the conflict component (NAI-), which can serve as a proxy for public perception of conflict, has an upward trend, reflecting increased conflict. However, a decrease in NAI- after mid-2021 suggests that the public has adapted to the high levels of violence as a 'new normal'. This is significant because the persistent conflicts negatively impact mental health, potentially leading to PTSD, depression, and anxiety disorders. Battles are found to be significantly more covered by media than other conflict types. The impact of COVID-19 is also evident, contributing to a more diffuse and diverse conflict landscape.

The findings address the research question by demonstrating the spatiotemporal evolution of conflicts in Nigeria and identifying key associated factors. The strong correlation between economic decay (RCW), decreased democracy, increased corruption, and conflict intensity highlights the significance of these factors in understanding and addressing the conflict. The shift in societal perception, reflected by the NAI-, toward accepting the high conflict levels as a new normal is a critical observation. This points to the need for not only enhanced international cooperation but also a fundamental shift in addressing the underlying economic and political issues in Nigeria. The study's findings contribute to a better understanding of the complex dynamics of armed conflicts and terrorism in Nigeria. They underscore the interplay between economic factors, governance, and social perceptions in shaping conflict landscapes.

This research provides a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of armed conflict and terrorism in Nigeria, highlighting the increasing spatial spread and temporal uniformity of conflicts. It establishes strong correlations between conflict intensity and economic decline, weakened democracy, and high corruption levels. The shift towards accepting high conflict as a 'new normal' is a significant finding. Future research could explore the long-term mental health consequences of this prolonged conflict and further investigate the specific mechanisms through which economic factors influence conflict dynamics. The findings emphasize the need for substantial economic assistance and international cooperation, not just in terms of security but also in promoting sustainable economic development and strengthening democratic institutions.

The study's reliance on secondary data sources, such as ACLED and GDELT, might introduce limitations related to data accuracy and completeness. The relatively short time series for some economic and political indicators limits the scope of formal regression analysis. The study focuses primarily on quantitative analysis, potentially overlooking qualitative aspects of the conflict dynamics and societal responses. The use of NAI- as a proxy for social perception, while insightful, requires further validation through other forms of data collection.