The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine drew widespread international condemnation. However, Slovakia presented a unique case within the EU, with a significant portion of its MPs openly supporting Russian interests and opposing the condemnation resolution. This study examines the evolution of Slovak political discourse on Facebook, focusing on the week before and the week after the invasion. The choice of Facebook is driven by its popularity among Slovak politicians as a direct communication channel with minimal moderation, allowing for the capture of immediate responses to the crisis. The study aims to understand the content of this discourse, the structure of the resulting network of MPs and their shared discourses, and the mechanisms driving the observed changes in discourse following the invasion. The research questions are: 1) What was the content of the political discourse in Slovakia before and after the invasion? 2) What was the structure of the political discourse network before and after the invasion? 3) What mechanisms drove the change in the political discourse network at the beginning of the invasion?

The study is situated within the broader context of research on political polarization and the spread of conspiracy theories during the invasion. Existing research indicates that in some European countries (Italy, Finland), the invasion led to a decrease in pro-/anti-NATO polarization, likely due to increased internal cohesion in the face of an external threat. However, the spread of conspiracy theories, often originating from Russian state propaganda, persisted. These narratives blamed NATO for the invasion and were amplified by various local actors across social media platforms. The concept of "conspiracy singularity," the tendency to interconnect various conspiracy theories into a single overarching narrative, is introduced as a relevant theoretical framework for understanding the observed phenomena.

The study employed Discourse Network Analysis (DNA), combining qualitative content analysis with quantitative bipartite social network analysis. The sample comprised all 117 Slovak MPs with active public Facebook pages during the study period (two weeks before and after the invasion). All posts (n=1880) were manually coded into 120 discourse codes categorized into 11 thematic categories (pro-Ukraine, pro-Russia, etc.). Inter-rater reliability was assessed using Krippendorff's alpha (0.88), indicating high reliability. Two bipartite networks were constructed – one for each week – with MPs and discourse codes as nodes, and weighted, undirected ties representing the frequency of code usage. Network metrics (Jaccard coefficient, density, centralization of degrees, equivalency) were calculated. Stochastic Actor-Oriented Models (SAOM) were used to analyze the mechanisms driving the change in the discourse network between the two weeks. The SAOM model incorporated endogenous network mechanisms (outdegree, indegree popularity, outdegree activity, isolate effect, 4-cycles effect) and attribute-based mechanisms (MP gender, party affiliation, Facebook followers, committee memberships).

The invasion dramatically altered the content of Slovak political discourse. Pre-invasion, domestic political struggles dominated; post-invasion, invasion-related topics took precedence. While pro-Ukrainian sentiment increased, there was a simultaneous rise in pro-Russian propaganda, anti-NATO rhetoric, and calls for Slovak neutrality. The network structure showed a clear coalition-opposition split. Coalition MPs largely supported Ukraine, while opposition MPs, especially from SMER-SD, ĽSNS, and Republika, promoted pro-Russian narratives. A cluster of opposition MPs consistently spread conspiracy theories related to both the invasion and COVID-19, exemplifying the "conspiracy singularity" theory. The SAOM analysis revealed that agenda setting by certain parties (OĽaNO, SaS, SMER-SD, ĽSNS, Republika), agenda reinforcement, and increased polarization (homophily within parties) were key mechanisms driving the network's change. The increased activity was particularly noteworthy for ĽSNS and Republika MPs.

The findings demonstrate a significant shift in Slovak political discourse following the invasion. The strong pro-Russian stance of a segment of the opposition, particularly its embrace of conspiracy theories, contrasts with the depolarization observed in other European countries. The persistence of pre-existing political cleavages, despite the external threat, suggests a deeply entrenched polarization in Slovak society. This inability to unite in the face of a major crisis may be attributed to the fragmented nature of Slovak society, low trust in government, and the significant influence of elite cues on public opinion. The strong activity of several parties as agenda setters points to strategic communication efforts to shape public discourse.

The study highlights the dramatic impact of the Ukrainian invasion on Slovak political discourse, revealing a persistent, highly polarized landscape characterized by the amplification of pro-Russian propaganda and conspiracy theories. Future research should examine the long-term consequences of this polarization and the potential for it to undermine national unity and foreign policy decision-making. Furthermore, research is needed to understand whether politicians who spread conspiracy theories remain consistent across crises and if high political polarization prevents unified responses to external threats.

The study's primary limitation is its two-week timeframe, limiting the ability to observe long-term dynamics. The manual data collection and coding process also introduced potential biases and constraints on data scale. Future research could leverage automated coding methods to analyze larger datasets across longer timeframes. The lack of pre-invasion data prevents comparisons with other significant events in Slovakia.