Single extreme storm sequence can offset decades of shoreline retreat projected to result from sea-level rise

Extreme storms cause extensive beach-dune erosion and are typically considered to enhance coastal erosion due to sea-level rise. However, extreme storms can also have a positive contribution to the nearshore sediment budget by exchanging sediment between the lower and upper shoreface and/or between adjacent headlands, potentially mitigating some adverse sea-level rise impacts. Here we use three high-resolution morphological datasets of extreme storm-recovery sequences from Australia, the UK and Mexico to quantify the nearshore sediment budget and relate these episodic volume changes to long-term coastal projections. We show that sediment gains over the upper shoreface were large (59–140 m³/m) and sufficient to theoretically offset decades of projected shoreline retreat due to sea-level rise, even for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5–8.5). We conclude that increased confidence in shoreline projections relies fundamentally on a robust quantitative understanding of the sediment budget, including any major short-term sediment contribution by extreme storms.