Sustained ocean cooling insufficient to reverse sea level rise from Antarctica

Global mean sea level rise is accelerating, and the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica is a major contributor. This study uses ice sheet model sensitivity experiments to investigate the effects of short-term enhanced ocean-driven sub-ice shelf melting on ice loss and assesses the necessary future reduction in melting to mitigate ice stream retreat and offset global sea level rise. Results show that restoring elevated melt rates to present-day levels within 100 years reduces ice discharge rates, but centennial-scale increased accumulation is needed to offset extensive ice loss. Reduced melt rates below present-day limit mass loss and promote grounding line re-advance, but complete reversal requires substantially increased accumulation.

Alanna Alevropoulos-Borrill, Nicholas R. Golledge, Stephen L. Cornford, Daniel P. Lowry, Mario Krapp