Earth Sciences

Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world's population

R. Trancoso, J. Syktus, et al.

This groundbreaking study reveals that climate change could affect 3 billion to 5 billion people by 2100 due to shifting precipitation patterns. Conducted by leading experts Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Richard P. Allan, Jacky Croke, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, and Robin Chadwick, this research provides a robust framework to understand future climate impacts under various emissions scenarios. Dive into the findings to grasp the urgency of climate adaptation!

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Abstract

Future precipitation projections are uncertain, hindering effective climate adaptation. This study introduces an approach analyzing continuous 120-year precipitation time-series across 146 Global Climate Model (GCM) runs under two GHG emissions scenarios. It identifies hotspots of future drier and wetter conditions, projecting that 3 billion people (38% of the current population) will be affected under an intermediate emissions scenario and 5 billion (66%) under a high emissions scenario by 2100. A country- and state-level analysis quantifies population exposure, offering a robust framework for assessing climate projections.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Jan 11, 2024

Authors

Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Richard P. Allan, Jacky Croke, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Robin Chadwick

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