Future precipitation projections are uncertain, hindering effective climate adaptation. This study introduces an approach analyzing continuous 120-year precipitation time-series across 146 Global Climate Model (GCM) runs under two GHG emissions scenarios. It identifies hotspots of future drier and wetter conditions, projecting that 3 billion people (38% of the current population) will be affected under an intermediate emissions scenario and 5 billion (66%) under a high emissions scenario by 2100. A country- and state-level analysis quantifies population exposure, offering a robust framework for assessing climate projections.

Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Richard P. Allan, Jacky Croke, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Robin Chadwick