Shifting baseline syndrome among coral reef scientists

The 'shifting baseline syndrome' has received much attention and acceptance within the conservation science community. In this study, the 'shifting baseline syndrome' based on which each generation of fisheries scientists accepts the stock size and species composition extant in the beginning of their careers as the normal baseline, as proposed by Pauly in 1995, was tested. It was hypothesized that Florida Keys reef scientists use the reef conditions at the beginning of their careers as the baseline for the evaluation of change. A cohort of these scientists was used as a study group to test this hypothesis and explore expert opinions on reef baselines. Snowball sampling led to a total of 54 interviews of Florida Keys Reef-experienced scientists. Among all contacts, 48% responded and were interviewed for a total of 37.6 h. Correlation statistics were used to analyse the respondent's age and experience and their correlations with the reported baselines. Ninety-six percent of the interviewees were professional scientists. Baselines for the Florida Keys bank reef ecosystem were established based on the respondents' testimonies. Independent of the age, experience, or affiliation, the respondents agreed that the baselines for the Florida Keys bank reef are a coral cover of -33% and 44 years before present (1972). Seventy percent of the respondents who were under the age of 40 stated that they never witnessed an Acropora sp.-dominated reef, whereas 96% of the experts over the age of 60 stated the opposite. This demonstrates the dramatic change in the interaction with the coral reef from one generation of experts to the next; however, the consensus regarding the baselines is high. Our results indicate the general consensus regarding reef baselines among scientists, which may inform the management practices of a wide range of stakeholders. This study provides evidence that Florida Keys reef scientists are not subject to the shifting baseline syndrome, highlighting that education and experience may counter potential baseline shifting. These results can be used as references for the establishment of unified restoration goals in coral restoration programs. Appropriate coral baselines have been debated for decades, with little understanding of the community consensus.

Milton Muldrow Jr., Edward C. M. Parsons, Robert Jonas