Long-term coral reef resilience depends on maintaining positive calcification rates. This study analyzes global spatiotemporal trends and drivers of coral reef calcification using a meta-analysis of ecosystem-scale case studies. Global ecosystem calcification, estimated from changes in seawater carbonate chemistry, was primarily driven by depth and benthic calcifier cover. Declining calcification (4.3 ± 1.9% per year) and increasing organic productivity (3.0 ± 0.8 mmol m−2 d−1 per year) since 1970 were observed. This metabolic shift could lead to worldwide net dissolution around 2054.

Kay L. Davis, Andrew P. Colefax, James P. Tucker, Brendan P. Kelaher, Isaac R. Santos