Seasonal-to-decadal prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation

This study assesses the seasonal-to-decadal prediction skills of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) using large ensembles of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 retrospective decadal predictions. ENSO is successfully predicted over a year in advance, with seasonal prediction skill enhanced by multi-model ensemble averaging. PDO is significantly predicted at five-to-nine-year lead times, primarily due to external radiative forcing rather than initialization. Both model initialization and accurate estimation of near-term radiative forcing are crucial for improved seasonal-to-decadal prediction in the Pacific Basin.

Jung Choi, Seok-Woo Son