Seafood independence is within reach: a multi-scale assessment of seafood self-reliance in the United States

Seafood is a crucial global commodity, vital for nutrition, culture, and economies. Growing food security concerns, climate change, diseases, and geopolitical instability highlight the need for food system transformation. The United States, the world's second-largest seafood importer, faces challenges in food security and dietary health, particularly in rural and marginalized communities. Diet-related diseases are a major cause of death, exacerbated by food insecurity. Blue foods, including seafood, offer high nutritional value and potential solutions, aligning with dietary guidelines recommending at least eight ounces of seafood per week. However, the US overlooks blue foods in food system transformation discussions, possibly due to the perception of low domestic production. Despite heavy reliance on imports (approximately 80% by volume), the US is a major seafood producer. This study assesses the potential for US blue food production to meet consumer demand and dietary needs through a self-reliance analysis, considering current and healthy diet consumption scenarios. Seafood independence, defined as meeting seafood needs through domestic production, enhances food and nutrition security and buffers against systemic shocks. The analysis integrates production, utilization, yield, and consumption data across seven US regions over 50 years (1970–2021). The study aims to highlight blue foods' role in combating food and nutrition insecurity and inform the 2023 National Seafood Strategy.

The study acknowledges existing research on the proportion of imported seafood in the US, a frequent topic of debate. However, it points out the lack of systematic analysis on the potential for US seafood independence or meeting population dietary needs. This gap in the literature provides the rationale for the current study, which seeks to contribute to the national conversation on food and nutrition insecurity and inform strategies for food system transformation.

The study utilizes publicly available data from NOAA Fisheries and the USDA Economic Research Service. The NOAA data includes annual commercial landings (excluding territorial landings) in weight and value for all species and states from 1970 to 2021, handling both confidential and non-confidential data. Confidential data, particularly for species like Atlantic salmon, were estimated using historical averages and correlations with other reports. USDA data provided per capita seafood consumption from 1970 to 2018, supplemented by NOAA data for 2019-2021. Data cleaning involved adjusting species names to market names, excluding species primarily used as bait, and categorizing species into fish, shellfish, and 'other species'. Regional classification followed the US Regional Fishery Management Council's divisions, with the inclusion of a 'Other States' category for states not easily classified. Regional production was calculated by aggregating data from states within each region, using formulas to estimate edible weight from reported landed weight and calculating total weight for each category (fish, shellfish, 'other'). National production was calculated similarly, but considering all seafood-producing states and species consumed across the US. Regional and national consumption estimations used per capita consumption data and regional/national populations. Regional self-reliance (RSR) and national self-reliance (NSR) were calculated as the percentage of a region's or nation's production meeting consumption, considering each seafood category. Statistical analysis was conducted using R.

Seafood production varied regionally and temporally (1970-2021). The North Pacific (Alaska) region dominated production, largely due to pollock fisheries. Other regions showed varied trends, with some experiencing decline. Regional self-reliance (RSR) varied across regions and seafood categories. The North Pacific (Alaska) consistently had the highest RSR for fish, followed by the Western Pacific (Hawaii) and New England. Shellfish RSR showed a general downward trend. National self-reliance (NSR) varied by category: fish NSR was above 70% since 1990, shellfish NSR declined significantly, and 'other species' NSR fluctuated. Overall NSR ranged from 49% to 110% over 50 years, peaking at 98% between 1992-2001 and reaching 76% in the last decade. Despite population growth and increased per capita consumption, the US was close to meeting current seafood demand. Per capita fish consumption increased significantly in 2021, while shellfish consumption has been increasing steadily since 1970. Total seafood consumption increased from 11.7 pounds per capita in 1970 to 20.3 pounds in 2021, reaching 78% of the recommended 26.07 pounds per year. The North Pacific (Alaska) disproportionately impacted national seafood production and NSR, contributing to two-thirds of the nation's harvest. Differences in RSR across regions are attributed to factors like species usage as bait, catch regulations, and consumption levels.

The study's findings demonstrate the potential for increased US seafood self-reliance, even with population growth and rising consumption. However, current production falls short of meeting recommended dietary intake of seafood. The outsized influence of the North Pacific (Alaska) on national figures highlights regional disparities. The declining RSR in some regions, particularly for shellfish, emphasizes the need for targeted strategies. To achieve self-reliance and improve dietary outcomes, several key factors must be addressed: consumer preferences should be shifted toward domestically produced species; investment in infrastructure is needed to support local distribution networks; and increased mariculture for shellfish is essential. Climate change impacts on seafood production also need to be integrated into any strategic plan.

The US possesses the potential to significantly increase seafood self-reliance, based on current production and consumption levels. However, achieving sufficient production to meet recommended dietary intake requires addressing consumer preferences, improving infrastructure, boosting shellfish production through mariculture, and accounting for climate change effects. Future research should focus on targeted interventions to increase regional self-reliance and evaluate the effectiveness of strategies to align production and consumption, with a focus on equity and access.

The study's reliance on publicly available data, which includes estimations for confidential data, might introduce uncertainties. Regional classifications might not perfectly reflect all aspects of seafood production and consumption. The analysis focuses on commercial landings, potentially overlooking recreational fishing and other sources of seafood. Future studies might benefit from more comprehensive data, including recreational and aquaculture production, and a more nuanced analysis of regional consumption patterns.