This paper presents a probabilistic risk assessment approach that integrates seismic risk assessment with spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to estimate the economic consequences of earthquakes, considering both direct and indirect losses. Using Chile as a case study, the authors calculate risk indicators such as Average Annual Loss (AAL) and Loss Exceedance Curves (LEC) for various economic variables (production, employment, GDP, GRP, exports, inflation, etc.). The methodology accounts for the induced damage and frequency of earthquakes, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the economic impact.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
May 25, 2022
Authors
J. A. León, M. Ordaz, E. Haddad, I. F. Araújo
Tags
seismic risk
economic impact
probabilistic assessment
Chile
CGE models
earthquakes
loss indicators
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