Medicine and Health

Reopening businesses and risk of COVID-19 transmission

A. O'donoghue, T. Dechen, et al.

This research explores the risk of COVID-19 resurgence during business reopenings using anonymized cell-phone data. A Business Risk Index was developed, correlating increased traffic with rising COVID-19 cases. This significant study, conducted by Ashley O'Donoghue and colleagues, offers vital insights for policymakers in monitoring transmission risks.

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Abstract

This paper investigates the risk of COVID-19 resurgence as businesses reopen using anonymized cell-phone data. A Business Risk Index was created, measuring transmission risk using visits per square foot and average visit duration. Analysis of 1,272,260 businesses across eight states (January-June 2020) revealed a 30% decrease in risky traffic behaviors by April, followed by an increase as states reopened. State and industry variations were observed. The index effectively forecasts county-level COVID-19 cases (P<0.001), with increased index values correlating to increased cases (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI: (1.1-1.26)). This index aids policymakers and hospital decision-makers in monitoring transmission risks from businesses.

Publisher

npj Digital Medicine

Published On

Mar 16, 2021

Authors

Ashley O'Donoghue, Tenzin Dechen, Whitney Pavlova, Michael Boals, Garba Moussa, Manvi Madan, Aalok Thakkar, Frank J. DeFalco, Jennifer P. Stevens

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