Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal

To achieve net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are crucial for compensating residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors. However, reliance on CDR carries environmental, technical, and social risks, especially regarding land use. This study uses scenarios aligned with the 1.5 °C target to demonstrate that demand and technological interventions can significantly reduce emissions in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings, transport) and lessen dependence on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Demand and technology measures could limit peak annual BECCS use to 0.5–2.2 GtCO₂e and 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e per year, respectively, compared to 10.3 GtCO₂e in a default 1.5 °C scenario. Dietary changes are pivotal in demand measures due to their significant impact on agricultural emissions.

Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Andries F. Hof, Maarten van den Berg, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Vassilis Daioglou, Mark M. Dekker, Jonathan C. Doelman, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Mathijs Harmsen, Stratos Mikropoulos, Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld, Elke Stehfest, Isabela S. Tagomori, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Detlef P. van Vuuren