Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal

To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in hard-to-abate sectors, but large-scale CDR—especially bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation—faces environmental, technical and social risks, notably land competition. Using IMAGE-based scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C, we show that ambitious demand- and technology-oriented interventions in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings and transport) can substantially reduce residual emissions and lower reliance on BECCS. Demand-side measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual BECCS use to 0.5–2.2 GtCO₂e yr⁻¹ and 1.9–7.0 GtCO₂e yr⁻¹, respectively, compared with about 10.3 GtCO₂e yr⁻¹ in a default 1.5 °C scenario. Dietary change is pivotal within demand measures due to its large impact on residual agricultural emissions and land use.

Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Andries F. Hof, Maarten van den Berg, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Vassilis Daioglou, Mark M. Dekker, Jonathan C. Doelman, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Mathijs Harmsen, Stratos Mikropoulos, Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld, Elke Stehfest, Isabela S. Tagomori, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Detlef P. van Vuuren