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Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems

Earth Sciences

Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems

T. Conradi, U. Eggli, et al.

This groundbreaking research by Timo Conradi, Urs Eggli, Holger Kreft, Andreas H. Schweiger, Patrick Weigelt, and Steven I. Higgins reveals significant shifts in phytoclimates, with up to 68% of global land surface affected by climate change by 2070. The study underscores the need for revised conservation strategies to protect our planet’s rich biodiversity in light of novel and disappearing phytoclimates.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Forecasting climate change risks for species and ecosystems is crucial for conservation. Previous risk assessments focused on climate exposure, but this overlooks nonlinear physiological responses and co-limitation. This study combines ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species with growth-form information to predict phytoclimates (climate's ability to support plant growth forms). Results show significant phytoclimatic changes (33-68% of global land surface by 2070 under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively), with novel phytoclimates emerging and existing ones disappearing. The geographic pattern of change differs from previous climate exposure studies, highlighting the need for revised conservation priorities and adaptation of biodiversity management practices.
Publisher
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Published On
Feb 26, 2024
Authors
Timo Conradi, Urs Eggli, Holger Kreft, Andreas H. Schweiger, Patrick Weigelt, Steven I. Higgins
Tags
climate change
phytoclimates
biodiversity
conservation
vascular plants
ecophysiology

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