Recent increases in eastern Siberian wildfires are investigated, attributing 79% of the increase in summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) to background eastern Siberian Arctic warming (BAW) related to summer Russian Arctic sea-ice decline. The remaining 21% is linked to internal atmospheric variability from changes in Siberian blocking events. These changes in blocking events, influenced by BAW, result in more persistent, widespread, and intense high-latitude warming and VPD, thus contributing to increased wildfires.

Binhe Luo, Dehai Luo, Aiguo Dai, Cunde Xiao, Ian Simmonds, Edward Hanna, James Overland, Jiaqi Shi, Xiaodan Chen, Yao Yao, Wansuo Duan, Yimin Liu, Qiang Zhang, Xiyan Xu, Yina Diao, Zhina Jiang, Tingting Gong