Earth Sciences

Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice

N. Wunderling, M. Willeit, et al.

This groundbreaking study by Nico Wunderling, Matteo Willeit, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ricarda Winkelmann reveals how the disintegration of cryospheric elements leads to an alarming increase in global mean temperature. With a predicted additional warming of 0.43 °C at 400 ppm CO2, the results underscore the urgent need for awareness of ice decay's long-term effects on our climate.

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Abstract

This study quantifies the impact of large-scale cryosphere element disintegration (Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets) on global mean temperature (GMT) using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2). The results indicate a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39–0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Albedo changes account for 55% of this warming, with lapse rate/water vapor (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contributing significantly. While ice sheet decay occurs on centennial to millennial timescales, the Arctic may become ice-free in summer within the 21st century, leading to additional GMT increases on intermediate to long timescales.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Oct 27, 2020

Authors

Nico Wunderling, Matteo Willeit, Jonathan F. Donges, Ricarda Winkelmann

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