Transportation is the largest contributor to US greenhouse gas emissions, with light-duty vehicles (LDVs) comprising half of these emissions. This study uses a state-level model to quantify the impact of vehicle electrification and grid decarbonization on LDV greenhouse gas emissions through 2035. We find that reaching a 50% EV sales target by 2030 would result in a 24% decrease in emissions under a business-as-usual grid scenario and a 26% decrease with a rapidly decarbonizing grid, compared to 2005 levels. While a significant portion of short-term reductions are due to fleet turnover, the benefits of electrification and grid decarbonization compound over time, leading to a plausible 50% emissions reduction by 2035 if goals are met and other strategies are implemented concurrently. The study also investigates the influence of state-level policies and battery material constraints.

Maxwell Woody, Gregory A. Keoleian, Paul D. Viappiani