This study investigates the response of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) to climate change using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model. The model reveals a two-timescale response: an initial extended period of reduced melting due to weakened circulation and colder water, followed by increased melting as warm deep water intrudes into the cavity. The second stage, however, requires extreme greenhouse gas forcing, suggesting increased FRIS melting is unlikely this century. While the FRIS might be more stable than previously believed, continued warming could lead to eventual destabilization.

Kaitlin A. Naughten, Jan De Rydt, Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Adrian Jenkins, Paul R. Holland, Jeff K. Ridley