Projected losses of ecosystem services in the US disproportionately affect non-white and lower-income populations

This study evaluates the distribution and equity of changes in ecosystem services (ES) benefits across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the United States (US) between 2020 and 2100. Using land cover and population projections, the authors model potential shifts in the supply, demand, and benefits of clean air, protection against West Nile virus, and crop pollination. Results indicate that changes in ES benefits are unevenly distributed, with non-white, lower-income, and urban populations disproportionately affected by declines. This is primarily due to the conversion of forests and wetlands to cropland and urban areas in counties with growing marginalized populations. Targeted land use policies are needed to mitigate these inequalities.

Jesse D. Gourevitch, Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez, Natalia Aristizábal, Luz A. de Wit, Eva Kinnebrew, Caitlin E. Littlefield, Maya Moore, Charles C. Nicholson, Aaron J. Schwartz, Taylor H. Ricketts