This paper investigates the maximum possible earthquake magnitude related to gas production in the Groningen gas field, the largest in Western Europe. The authors distinguish between induced and triggered tectonic earthquakes, estimating the maximum possible induced magnitude to be around Mw = 4. By extending the seismogenic index concept to gas production and calculating the probability of triggering larger-magnitude tectonic earthquakes, they find that the probability of a Mw 5.5 earthquake at Groningen is significantly higher than at Pohang, where such an event was triggered. However, the model's prediction of multiple Mw ≥ 4 earthquakes in Groningen, which contradicts observations, suggests the field's inherent stability and unlikely conditions for triggering large tectonic earthquakes.

Nepomuk Boitz, Cornelius Langenbruch, Serge A. Shapiro