Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 | ResearchBunny

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Abstract

This study uses agent-based epidemic simulations to assess the effectiveness of COVID-19 countermeasures in South Africa's Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality. The simulations indicate that prematurely lifting or relaxing measures leads to continued exponential infection growth or a second major infection peak, potentially overwhelming healthcare capacity. Strict measures, conversely, effectively contain the virus. The initial lockdown is deemed sufficient, but relaxing countermeasures risks a severe second outbreak.

Publisher

Humanities & Social Sciences Communications

Published On

Jul 16, 2021

Authors

Moritz Kersting, Andreas Bossert, Leif Sörensen, Benjamin Wacker, Jan Chr. Schlüter

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