Earth Sciences

Predictability of South-Asian monsoon rainfall beyond the legacy of Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA)

B. N. Goswami, D. Chakraborty, et al.

This groundbreaking research by B. N. Goswami, Deepayan Chakraborty, P. V. Rajesh, and Adway Mitra reveals how North Atlantic sea-surface temperature significantly influences Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, challenging previous understandings of ENSO's dominance. Discover the intricacies of weather patterns and their global connections!

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Abstract

This research paper investigates the predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) by exploring the causal relationship between North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (NA-SST) and ISMR. Using nonlinear causal inference techniques, the study establishes that NA-SST and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are independent drivers of ISMR, with NA-SST contributing as much to ISMR variability as ENSO. The findings support a teleconnection mechanism where NA-SST influences ISMR through Rossby wave trains, modulating active and break spells of monsoon rainfall.

Publisher

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Published On

Jul 11, 2022

Authors

B. N. Goswami, Deepayan Chakraborty, P. V. Rajesh, Adway Mitra

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