Prediction of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) has remained a challenge. This study identifies two dominant SASM modes, showing that unsatisfactory prediction may be due to existing indices focusing on the less predictable second mode. The first mode, highly predictable and linked to the Indian monsoon trough, is proxied by a new index, predicting SASM one season in advance with 0.698 skill (1979–2020). This suggests a predictable SASM prospect, recommending the new index for real-time monitoring and prediction.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Nov 18, 2022
Authors
Tuantuan Zhang, Xingwen Jiang, Song Yang, Junwen Chen, Zhenning Li
Tags
South Asian summer monsoon
predictability
Indian monsoon trough
forecasting
climate indices
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