Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift

This study investigates the interaction between spatial connectivity and local environmental factors in shaping ecosystem resilience to regime shifts. Using fish sampling data from the Baltic Sea, the researchers examined a shift from predatory fish to an opportunistic mesopredator. They found that predatory fish habitat connectivity increased resilience to the shift, but only when top predator densities were low. Higher temperatures also increased resilience, likely by boosting predatory fish growth and recruitment. These findings confirm theoretical predictions about the interplay of spatial connectivity and local environment in determining resilience to regime shifts.

Agnes B. Olin, Ulf Bergström, Örjan Bodin, Göran Sundblad, Britas Klemens Eriksson, Mårten Erlandsson, Ronny Fredriksson, Johan S. Eklöf