Policy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast

Despite increasing risks from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms, US coastal communities continue to attract relatively high-income residents, and coastal property values continue to rise. This study uses the Coastal Home Ownership Model (C-HOM) to analyze long-term coastal real estate market evolution, incorporating physical coastal attributes, economic values, and dynamic risks. Results show that subsidies for coastal management, tax advantages for high-income owners, and stable/increasing property values outside the coastal zone temporarily delay SLR's impact on coastal property values, but precipitous declines ultimately occur as inundation nears. Removing subsidies would better reflect risks but accelerate coastal gentrification. The study highlights a policy tradeoff between slowing demographic transitions and allowing market adjustments to climate change.

Dylan E. McNamara, Martin D. Smith, Zachary Williams, Sathya Gopalakrishnan, Craig E. Landry