Polarisation of Climate and Environmental Attitudes in the United States, 1973–2022

Since the early 1990s, increasing political polarisation is among the greatest determinants of individual-level environmental and climate change attitudes in the United States. But several patterns remain unclear: are historical patterns of polarisation largely symmetrical (equal) or is rather asymmetrical (where one set of partisans shifts more than others)? How have polarisation patterns have changed over time? How generalizable are polarization patterns across different environmental and climate change attitudes? We harmonised four unique sets of historical, pooled cross-sectional survey data from the past 50 years to investigate shifts across seven distinct measures of citizen environmental and climate change attitudes. We find that contemporary attitudes are polarised symmetrically, with Democrats (higher) and Republicans (lower) attitudes are equidistant from the median. But the historical trends in polarisation differ by attitudes and beliefs. In particular, we find evidence of two distinct historical patterns of asymmetric polarisation within environmental and climate change attitudes: first, with Republicans becoming less pro-environmental, beginning in the early 1990s, and second, a more recent greening of Democratic environmental attitudes since the mid-2010s. Notably, recent increases in pro-environmental attitudes within Democrats is a potentially optimistic finding, providing opportunities towards overcoming decades-long inertia in climate action. These findings provide a foundation for further research avenues into the factors shaping increased pro-environmental attitudes within Democrats.

E. Keith Smith, M. Julia Bognar, Adam P. Mayer