Perceived feasibility and potential barriers of a net-zero system transition among Japanese experts

Many governments and non-state actors have pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, raising questions about the feasibility of these decarbonization goals. Existing literature mostly relies on technoeconomic assessments and lacks broader contextual considerations such as national conditions and local sociocultural characteristics. This study presents a framework for assessing perceived feasibility and multi-dimensional barriers for net-zero transitions that complements technoeconomic traditions. Applying the framework to Japan, the authors surveyed over 100 experts from diverse fields within a shared national context. Most experts supported the desirability of the net-zero goal and selected a 33–66% probability for its feasibility. However, feasibility assessments differed between integrated assessment modelers/IPCC authors and other researchers, indicating opportunities for further exploration within and between communities. Identified barriers reflecting Japan’s unique conditions include limitations of national strategies and adequate clean energy supply. The framework can be extended to non-experts, data-scarce geographies, and sectoral assessments.

Yiyi Ju, Masahiro Sugiyama, Hiroto Shiraki